Graphics card gross sales are in a serious hunch, at the very least going by the most recent figures from an analyst agency which retains common observe of the GPU world.

The headline stats for Q3 2022 from Jon Peddie Analysis (opens in new tab) (JPR) make for fairly depressing viewing, with gross sales of each built-in (on processors) and discrete (standalone) GPUs falling to 75.5 million items. That’s down a towering 25.1% in comparison with the identical quarter within the earlier yr (and it’s a hunch of 10.5% when stacked up towards the earlier quarter of this yr, Q2 2022).

Desktop graphics card shipments dropped by 15.4% year-on-year, and the image was worse with laptop computer GPUs falling by 30%, to make for the “greatest drop for the reason that 2009 recession” as JPR observes. So, that is the worst hunch in 13 years, in different phrases – nasty certainly.

Breaking issues all the way down to particular person GPU makers and general market share, AMD was worst hit with its share of 20% of the market in Q2 2022 falling to 12% in Q3, which is an alarming drop.

Nvidia additionally misplaced floor falling from an 18% share to 16%, and Intel made the features right here, with its market share rising from 62% to 72%.

Bear in mind, that is for all GPUs, each desktop and laptop computer, discrete and built-in, which is why Intel does so nicely with its CPUs extensively used on notebooks (and sporting built-in graphics). We don’t get a market share breakdown for discrete desktop GPUs, however that’s the place Nvidia invariably leads by an extended, good distance.

Evaluation: Gathering energy of headwinds

It is a little bit of a shocker at first look, and the precipitous decline plus that headline determine of the worst hunch in nicely over a decade may have raised some eyebrows this morning. The third quarter is normally a robust go well with, with back-to-school gross sales, and the Vacation season coming into view, in any case.

Nonetheless, are these stats actually all that stunning when you concentrate on it, although? We don’t imagine so, and let’s chew over the primary the reason why.

First off, the crypto crash which got here into drive earlier this yr has meant a weakening of demand from the likes of miners shopping for GPUs. Moreover, throughout Q3 of this yr, we additionally noticed a variety of chatter about next-gen graphics playing cards – with some players little doubt deciding that now will not be the appropriate time to purchase, when a a lot better GPU goes to be simply not far away.

Granted, we’ve solely seen very costly RTX 4000 sequence graphics playing cards from Nvidia up to now, and shortly from AMD we’ll get practically as dear RX 7000 fashions, however that received’t have stopped a great quantity of parents pondering that extra inexpensive GPUs from the next-gen ranks aren’t too far off – or that RTX 3000 or RX 6000 costs are going to fall additional, for that matter, which they nonetheless are doing.

An additional aspect coming into play right here should certainly be the cost-of-living disaster and worries over rampant inflation, actually in international locations just like the US and UK. Cash is getting a lot tighter, and so there’s much less disposable revenue to spend on upgrading dear graphics playing cards or shopping for new PCs or laptops. And whereas GPU costs are nonetheless falling as famous, they’re hardly affordable but – with these new next-gen graphics playing cards doing nothing to treatment that scenario.

There are a variety of headwinds to take care of, in brief, although JPR is tentatively optimistic in regards to the subsequent quarter. Whereas This autumn shipments are nonetheless prone to be down, or that’s the overall business sentiment, common promoting costs will probably be up (and that is smart with these costly new Lovelace and RDNA three fashions), and JPR concludes that “provide will probably be advantageous [for Q4], and everybody may have a contented vacation.”

We’re pondering the image may simply be just a little rockier than this, however time will inform.

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By way of Tom’s {Hardware} (opens in new tab)